Museveni splits NRM in 5 camps

‘We will start regional campaigns soon’ – 5th term MP

The political future of President Museveni continues to divide the NRM, with at least five camps emerging in Parliament to coalesce around their preferred 2016 presidential candidate. The camps are mainly led by youthful MPs who are positioning themselves for post-2016 politics. Most of the old guard political actors are understandably comfortable with the status quo because it serves their interests.

But new and more youthful legislators have started meeting and laying strategies for the next leader after Museveni – leading to the emergency of at least five different camps.

Madame Speaker
One of the camps is marketing Rebecca Kadaga, the Speaker of Parliament, as its NRM candidate in the 2016 race. This camp comprises mostly MPs from Eastern and Northern Uganda, as well as a cross section of female MPs. Their marketing tool has mainly been through fundraising ceremonies where Kadaga is often invited as chief guest.

Kadaga has not publicly expressed interest in the top seat as that would be inappropriate at this time considering that she is not only speaker but also NRM vice chairperson. Nevertheless those close to her have no doubt that she is weighing up her chances. Besides, sources have told The Observer that although most of the plans for the Kadaga presidency remain under wraps, she has been aggressive in seeking rapport with the international community.

Kadaga, who is the current president of the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU), has reportedly used this position to reach out to influential leaders outside Uganda. Amongst those backing her ambition, says a source, is the influential Uganda Joint Christian Council (UJCC), some cultural leaders and women organizations like the Association of Uganda Women Lawyers (FIDA).

The Kadaga group appears to be the biggest as it attracts some opposition and independent legislators. Some of the most active members of this camp include three commissioners, a section of senior female MPs and four male MPs who organize the function schedule.
This camp held several meetings at the beginning of this year, but they stopped when president Museveni attacked Kadaga during a NRM caucus meeting that was held in June, after NRM lost the Bushenyi-Ishaka municipality by-election.

Kadaga is not known to have attended any of those meetings, but the MPs have remained steadfast—meeting informally to discuss the prospects of Kadaga at the parliamentary canteen and during committee tours. Patrick Nsanja (Ntenjeru South) is one of them. He told us that the main reason this camp is excited about Kadaga is her war against graft, which showcases her ability to transform the country if she gets the political mantle.

“I am behind Kadaga because she fights corruption,” he said.

Camp Mbabazi
The second camp is coalescing around the Prime Minister, Amama Mbabazi, who is also NRM secretary general. Being the close confidante of President Museveni that he is, Mbabazi has not expressed interest in succeeding him, but he remains the second most powerful person in the party and in government, which puts him in a good position to jump into the race at an appropriate time.

Mbabazi’s camp in Parliament has Local Government Minister, Adolf Mwesige, Regional Affairs Minister, Asuman Kiyingi, Barnabas Tinkasimire (Buyaga West), Saleh Kamba (Kibuuku), Harriet Ntabaazi (Bundibugyo Woman), Elizabeth Karungi (Kanungu), Olivia Kwagala (Iganga Woman), Victoria Rusoke (Kabarole Woman) Sarah Mwebaza (Pallisa Woman) and a host of other MPs.

This group, we understand conducts study group discussions on a weekly basis. Although the group used to be more active at the times Mbabazi faced hard times in Parliament, it now appears to be less active, amidst reports of some friction between the first minister and the first family.

This group was responsible for mobilizing NRM delegates who backed Mbabazi when CEC recommended that he should relinquish the secretary general post. “We dare those who want him out to do so,” Tinkasiimire said recently, following the President’s remarks that he will appoint a new secretary general.

Camp Bukenya
A third camp, mainly consisting of lawmakers from Buganda sub-region, is backing former vice president and Busiro North MP Gilbert Bukenya. Bukenya has said in the past that he would only stand if Museveni wasn’t interested, but his exit from government and subsequent imprisonment has alienated him from the NRM so much so that many people believe he is trying to use Buganda as a launch pad for a presidential bid.

Bukenya was a notable absentee, when Museveni recently met the Buganda Parliamentary caucus. The meeting came shortly after Bukenya had conspicuously portrayed himself as a champion of Buganda issues – during Kabaka Mutebi’s 19th coronation anniversary. Although Bukenya’s group seems to be more secretive, it enjoys sympathy from some independent-minded MPs like Muhammad Nsereko (Kampala Central), Rosemary Sseninde (Wakiso Woman) and Theodore Ssekikubo (Lwemiyaga).

5th Term Camp
The fourth camp comprises relatively young MPs who have taken advantage of growing agitation by their colleagues in the party to emerge as strong Museveni supporters. For good measure, these MPs have started campaigning for a fifth term for the incumbent.

These include Peter Ogwang (Youth, Eastern), Dr. Kenneth Omona (Kaberamaido), Frank Tumwebaze (Kibale), Richard Todwong (Nwoya), Margaret Komuhangi (Nakasongola), Moses Balyeku (Jinja East), Vincent Bagiire (Bunya West), Dr Peter Eriaku (Kapelebyong), Benny Bugembe Namugwanya (Mubende woman) and Michael Werikhe (Bungokho North). This group contends that if Museveni vacates in 2016, NRM might collapse.

Although some analysts say this camp is simply being used by Museveni to test the waters, Ogwang insists that they have not discussed the idea with the president. But they have been meeting in various places every Friday to discuss the move. The meetings usually start around 6pm and end at 9pm – mainly focusing on how to neutralise the growing dissent against Museveni within NRM.

“Just imagine the members are already divided into camps yet he is still around. What will happen when he leaves?” Omona asked, adding, “Maybe when he’s around he can galvanize the factions”.
James Kakooza (Kabula), who has been behind Museveni’s past presidential bids, is also said to be sympathetic to this group.

Kakooza told us he was aware of this camp, and that he had been working with them underground.
“It has momentum,” he said. “We have so far got 120 MPs on board and we are soon going to start on our regional campaigns.”

The camp also enjoys the support of the influential pro-Museveni ‘yellow girl’, Kabakumba Masiko (Bujenje). Kabakumba last week said Museveni’s fifth term was a sure deal. Asked why she had not attended the meetings conducted by this camp, Masiko said she was taking it “slow”.

But the ‘yellows’ are not finding it easy recruiting members. For instance, Amos Okot (Agago) told The Observer that he had been approached by the camp but had not been impressed.

“They have approached me to join the pro-Museveni agenda, but I am skeptical because when you interact with the voters, their opinions seem to suggest a different mood,” Okot said.

Critics also say the pro-Museveni group is eyeing ministerial posts; most of them are first-time lawmakers and some have worked with Museveni at State House. In fact, the lawmakers say that they have started to be threatened by some anti-Museveni elements within NRM, who badly want Museveni to retire in 2016.

Death threats have also been reported as this political maneuvering takes an ugly turn.

“There are people who have threatened to kill me and Ogwang, but we have already informed security and the concerned people about it,” said Omona without giving details.

Asked whether he has reported to Police, Omona said: “I have not told the police but what I can confirm is that the responsible authorities are aware.”

However, Ogwang reported to Police and he was given police body guards.

Change camp
The fifth camp is that of outspoken MPs who have made it clear they will not support Museveni for another term although they will not say who should succeed him.

“He has contributed what he can as President. Let other people come and add on to what he has done because the more he continues being in power the more the country loses,” says Wilfred Niwagaba (Ndorwa West), one of the MPs in this camp.

Other MPs here include Theodore Ssekikubo (Lwemiyaga), Felix Okot Ogong (Dokolo), Henry Musasizi (Rubanda East), Cerinah Nebanda (Butaleja Woman), Vincent Kyamadidi (Rwampara), Barnabas Tinkasiimire (Buyaga West), Tony Ayoo (Kwania), Hamson Obua Ogwal (Ajuri), Muhammad Nsereko (Kampala Central), Abdi Fadhil Chemaswet (Kween), Michael Mawanda (Igara West), and Raphael Magyezi (Igara East), among others.

However, the lawmakers in this group don’t trust each other. Their tag is “rebel MPs”, but the fear is that some of them are working closely with the above camps by night and singing a hate-Museveni song by day. They also clashed recently with Nsereko, who has since said that he will resign his Kampala Central MP seat and form his own party. Ssekikubo and Niwagaba argue that there is no need to form a party – that it is better to fight from within.

Nsereko recently suggested that Ssekikubo could be a Museveni spy and that he no longer trusted him.